After many weeks of up trend, there are talks of a correction. Starting with the comments from Ben Bernanke and the Market Events & News from Japan and Asia, there seems to be a chance for the bears to come in. However, there is still a lot of resistance and resilience with the bulls. Moving on to the charts, The Dow and S&P both seem to have completed the 30f3 of 5 of V. Please refer to the daily charts. There is a distinct 5 wave correction that is visible in the 15 min and hourly charts of both and it suggests that a short term bottom is formed and we are on our way to try to form a B of 4 and retest the highs or at least the upper trendlines that were briefly violated to form the 3. Look for the 61.8% retracement of Wave A at around the 15,450 to be a point where the bears will re-enter the markets.
As far as the Gold is concerned, we may have seen the end of this short term pull back with the formation of the B Wave of the 4 of 5 of the larger multi-year corrective ABC. Look for a test of the 1540 level in the coming months and on the down side, look for the break of the lows set this month to complete the 4 of 5 for the larger Rally to restart to perhaps above the all time highs.
The Dollar Index is very close to a short term high and perhaps ready for a larger correction. Wait for confirmation of the breaks of previous lows and channels as the index has been extremely volital and going side ways in the past week which is the case when the traders are divided and are trying to figure out in which direction the next move will be. Please refer to the charts.
Be careful and good fortunes...
The EURUSD seems to have found a short term bottom and perhaps completing the B of B wave of the larger correction that started with the highs of 1.37110 on the end of January. The EURUSD should be gradually going up to test the 61.8% of the A wave that is formed in early April. Please refer to the charts.
The EURJPY has possibly seen a top forming and this could be a start of a corrective 4 that could possibly bring prices down significantly in the coming months. You should look for retracement of at least 23% - 38.2% of Wave 3. Break of the up channel could significantly increase the selling pressure. You could see major Divergences that further support this count. You could also see this visibly in the divergences forming in the USDJPY. A break of the upward wedge would significantly start a downward pressure in USDJPY and perhaps suggest that the rally in the USDJPY is in for a more substantial correction to come. Please refer to the charts.
In the long term, the GBPUSD is on its rally to go back up and test the bottom trendline of the large Triangle formed in 2010-2012. Looking at the 1 day chart, one could argue that in the short term, the GBPUSD has formed an A and will now test the bottom of the channel that is formed in the last two months. Breaking this channel will start a corrective move to form the B of the larger II of V. Please refer to the charts.
The USDCHF is testing recent highs set around August of 2012 and it is nearly close to a double top forming a B of B wave of the corrective move. There is a larger multi-year Wedge that is clearly visible in the Weekly chart. The break down of the lower trendline will increase the selling pressure, but the break of the highs would cause the pair to move above parity and test the upper trendline. Please refer to the charts.
As always be careful and wait for confirmations on the moves and good fortunes...
Updated Elliott-wave Chart Analysis for the: Dow(US30) , S&P (SPX500), & Gold (XAUUSD) - May 10th 2013 - 15 min to 4 hour.
Updated Elliott Wave Chart Analysis for the Forex Majors. EURUSD seems to have completed a short term Corrective move; and it may be possible to move to around the 1.3500 price level areas. Look for Fib levels of 61.8% to 78.6% levels of the highs around the 1.3750 area set in February. The EURJPY has ended a corrective Triangle move for the completion of the 4 of 5 of 5 of C (please refer to the charts). A test of the highs at 131.126, can start a the last leg of the rally to the 140 levels. Look at the divergences forming in the Daily and Weekly charts. The Yen is also performing extremely strong in similar fashions to the EURJPY and has broken trendlines of a Triangular pattern of the 4 of 5 of 5 of C. Keep an eye out for the divergences forming. The GBPUSD is correcting in a channel trying to complete the II of the larger move Down from the Completion of the (IV) Triangle made in January. A break of this channel to the downside will start excellerated move to test the lows of 1.48 set in March. The USDCHF is correcting sideways. Keep an eye out for the break of the Trendlines and the completion of the patterns in Euro and Yen to start the rally for the Dollar against the CHF.
As always, keep your Elliott Wave Forecasts handy and good fortunes...